2026 midterms
Polls, money and what could flip
Polls from VoteHub, campaign finance from the FEC, and a what-if model of the November electorate. Every number on every page opens to its sources.
Forecast & polls
Track Conditions
What turnout and the national mood would flip
53 D · 47 R
Senate if today's polls hold
50 seats
27 House seats change hands at today's numbers. Drag turnout and the national mood to see what moves.
The Odds
10,000 simulated Senates, with realistic polling misses
60 in 100
Democrats win the Senate in 10,000 simulated elections
D control
60%
R control
38%
The Finish Line
The race that decides the Senate
Texas
is the tipping point: the race that gives Democrats seat 51
Maine · Jackson (D) v Collins (R★)
D+2.6
▶ Texas · Talarico (D) v Paxton (R)
D+1.2
Iowa · Turek (D) v Hinson (R)
Tied
The Grandstand
The generic ballot and the president's approval
D+7.3
on the generic congressional ballot
2014 result
R+5.7
2018 result
D+8.6
2022 result
R+2.7
2026 polls
D+7.3
Donald Trump's net approval: −27.8
The Tote Board
Every new poll, by office and state
15
polls in the last week
Alaska Senate · Oct 15
D+1.0
Kansas Senate · Oct 14
R+1.0
Maine Senate · Oct 14
D+2.0
Down the Stretch
Leads gained and lost this fall
5
races where an early lead shrank 3+ points
AK at-large
lead shrank 6.8 pts
Arkansas Senate
lead shrank 6.3 pts
Michigan Senate
lead flipped 3.5 pts
Long Shots
The cheapest races to flip
$11.3K
to flip NE-01, the cheapest race within reach
NE-01 · Flood (R★) down 0.5
$11.3K
MN-01 · Finstad (R★) down 0.3
$13.2K
WI-01 · Steil (R★) down 0.3
$18.7K
Money
The Purse
Senate spending, state by state
$2.5B
spent on 35 Senate races so far
TX
$526M
OH
$308M
MI
$290M
GA
$138M
IA
$132M
Silent Partners
How much Senate money comes from outside groups
58%
of Senate money is outside groups, below the waterline
IA
77%
OH
77%
MI
72%
TX
69%
The Handicap
The biggest money gaps, Senate and House
76×
more money for Hickenlooper (D★) than Baisley (R) in Colorado Senate
Hickenlooper (D★)
$8.4M
Baisley (R)
$111K
Cost per Length
What a point in the polls costs
$5.6M
per polling point for Paxton (R), Texas Senate
Paxton (R) · Texas Senate
$5.6M
Talarico (D) · Texas Senate
$4.1M
Husted (R★) · Ohio Senate
$3.5M
Value Bets
Who outruns their state's partisan lean, and for how much
+13.0
over the partisan baseline: Dembo (D), KY-06
Dembo (D) · KY-06
+13.0
Shoffner (D) · Arkansas Senate
+13.0
Collins (R★) · Maine Senate
+12.8
The Payout
Does more money buy more votes?
+3.5 pts
from the first doubling of a money edge; past that, too few races to tell
Even → 2× the money
+1.5 to +6.0
2× → 4×
can't tell
4× → 8×
can't tell
Past Performances
2014 → 2026, in today's dollars
$2.5B
on Senate races in 2026 so far, in today's dollars
2014
$1.4B
2018
$1.9B
2022
$3B
2026*
$2.5B
Donors
Late Money
Do donors rally when a race moves?
21
close races with donations and polls to compare
Arkansas Senate
lead shrank 12.3 pts
NE-01
lead shrank 11.0 pts
TX-15
lead grew 11.0 pts
Shipped In
Where each campaign's donors live
93%
of Collins (R★)'s itemized donations came from out of state
Collins (R★)
93%
Peltola (D)
90%
Rounds (R★)
90%
Coons (D★)
89%
High Rollers
Where one large donor's money ended up
Pick any large donor and follow their money through PACs and party committees to the races it ended up in. No addresses or contact details are shown.