Senate & House · last 10 weeks

Down the Stretch

Did the leader hold on? Each arrow follows one race from 10 weeks ago to today, seen from whoever was ahead at the start: up means their lead grew, below the line means they've been overtaken, and right means they had more of the money. Of 15 competitive races, 1 saw a comeback, 3 a shrinking lead and 0 a leader pulling away — most notably, El-Sayed came back, gaining 3.5 pts in the Michigan Senate.

In play (15)

All races (22)

Chart

Table

Updated Oct 19, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC

Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.

Early leader is a Democrat

Early leader is a Republican

Early leader is an independent

Arrow: start of window → today

Comebacks

sources

Leads that shrank

sources

Pulling away

None in this view.

Not in play

More than 10 points apart throughout, or fewer than 3 polls in the window: NE-02 (Powell (D) +10.5, 2 polls) · Massachusetts Senate (Markey (D★) +24.7, 4 polls) · Nebraska Senate (Ricketts (R★) +2.3, 2 polls) · Montana Senate (Alme (R) +19.4, 2 polls) · New Mexico Senate (Luján (D★) +17.5, 2 polls) · MN-01 (Johnson (D) +1.8, 2 polls) · WI-01 (Berman (D) +0.6, 2 polls)

Limits of this data

Money flows toward competitive races, so spending and polling move together for reasons other than spending working. Treat these as descriptions, not causal estimates.

Outside spending is reported within 24–48 hours near elections, so it is far more current than candidate totals.

Races with few polls move in jumps when a single new poll arrives.

Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.