Senate & House · 2026 what-if

Track Conditions

Drag turnout and the national mood and watch which seats change hands. When pollsters publish both versions of a poll, likely voters run 1.5 points more Democratic than registered voters — so a bigger turnout helps Republicans, but only by about 0.9 points for every 10 extra points of turnout. A shift in the national mood moves races point for point.

Senate

House

Chart

Table

Updated Oct 19, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC

Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.

These are estimates for understanding the race, not betting lines. Please don't bet on elections.

Turnout

as expected

Lower

Expected

Higher

National mood

as polled today · generic ballot D+7.2

Toward R

Today (D+7.2)

Toward D

Today's mood: this site's generic-ballot average, from 6 pollsters in the last 60 days; other averages D+7.8 to D+9.0.

Senate after the election

53 D · 47 R

D control

Seats changing hands

6 to D

Toss-ups (within 3 pts)

at today's polls and baselines

Today (polls weighted with the partisan baseline)

This scenario (color = projected leader)

Toss-up band (±3)

Democrat (D)

Republican (R)

Independent (I)

All 35 contested Senate races, most Democratic today at the top. “Flip” = projected leader differs from the party holding the seat. ◇ = partisan baseline (no polls).

Across turnout holding national mood where it is

expected: net 6 seats to D/I

Net seats changing hands (D/I gains minus R gains). Dashed line = your slider setting.

Across national mood holding turnout where it is

today: net 6 seats to D/I

Net seats changing hands (D/I gains minus R gains). Dashed line = your slider setting.

Limits of this data

This is a what-if tool, not a forecast. Turnout effects come from who pollsters' likely-voter screens leave out, which differs by pollster, and real turnout surges are local and lopsided rather than uniform.

Paired LV/RV polls are a minority of polls, and a race's gap from two or three of them is noisy — that's why it's pulled toward the national gap.

Unpolled races use a partisan baseline that misses individual Senate results by about 10 points (typical deviation in 2014–2022), more than polling averages do.

District leans are Cook PVI on the lines the source lists; districts redrawn for 2026 may lean differently.

Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.