Senate · 2026 forecast
The Odds
Polls miss, and when they miss they often miss together. Rerunning the Senate 10,000 times with realistic polling errors, Republicans keep control in 38 and Democrats win it in 60 of every 100 at today's numbers. The sliders move every race before the dice are rolled.
Updated
Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.
These are estimates for understanding the race, not betting lines. Please don't bet on elections.
Turnout
as expected
Lower
Expected
Higher
National mood
as polled today · generic ballot D+7.2
Toward R
Today (D+7.2)
Toward D
Today's mood: this site's generic-ballot average, from 6 pollsters in the last 60 days; other averages D+7.8 to D+9.0.
Republicans keep the Senate
38 in 100
simulations; a 50–50 Senate goes to the Republican Vice President
Democrats win control
60 in 100
51+ Democratic seats
Typical outcome
51 D seats
1 in 100 need independents to form a majority
Democratic control
Republican control
No majority without independents
Race by race 19 races where both sides win at least 2 in 100 simulations; 16 more are 98%+ for one side
New Jersey · Booker (D★) v Murphy (R)
97%
3%
Virginia · Warner (D★) v Mizusawa (R)
95%
5%
North Carolina · Cooper (D) v Whatley (R)
95%
6%
Georgia · Ossoff (D★) v Collins (R)
93%
7%
New Hampshire · Pappas (D) v Sununu (R)
88%
12%
Minnesota · Flanagan (D) v Tafoya (R)
76%
24%
Ohio · Brown (D) v Husted (R★)
70%
30%
Michigan · El-Sayed (D) v Rogers (R)
69%
31%
Maine · Jackson (D) v Collins (R★)
66%
34%
Texas · Talarico (D) v Paxton (R)
58%
42%
Iowa · Turek (D) v Hinson (R)
52%
48%
Alaska · Peltola (D) v Sullivan (R★)
50%
50%
Kansas · Hamilton (D) v Marshall (R★)
43%
57%
South Carolina · Andrews (D) v Graham (R)
34%
66%
Nebraska · Osborn (I) v Ricketts (R★)
25%
75%
Florida · Nixon (D) v Moody (R★)
17%
83%
Mississippi · Colom (D) v Hyde-Smith (R★)
14%
86%
Louisiana · Davis (D) v Letlow (R)
8%
92%
Arkansas · Shoffner (D) v Cotton (R★)
4%
96%
How far off were the polls in 2025?
This site's polling average on election eve versus the certified result, in the two governor races decided last November. The model assumes a typical polling miss of about 6.52 points (σ).
| Race | Poll average | Result | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ governor 2025 Mikie Sherrill (D) vs Jack Ciattarelli (R) · 21 pollsters | D+5.5 | D+14.4 | 8.9 pts toward D |
| VA governor 2025 Abigail Spanberger (D) vs Winsome Earle-Sears (R) · 21 pollsters | D+9.6 | D+15.4 | 5.8 pts toward D |
Two races can't measure polling error, but both missed in the same direction, the kind of shared miss the simulation's national error is there for.
Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.