Horse Race, 2026 midtermsHorse Race, 2026 midterms

Who's ahead, who's paying, what could flip

Money gaps · Senate & House · 2026

The Handicap

Plenty of races aren't a fair fight on money. In 16 of 35 Senate races one side has at least four times the other's campaign and outside money, and in 13 it's ten times or more; yet in all 7 lopsided races that have been polled, the vote is less than half as lopsided. Each block is a million dollars; count them. In the House, 113 of 379 contested races are at 9 to 1 or worse.

Updated

Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.

Senate races, most lopsided first

Each contender gets a pile of equal blocks, one per million dollars, so a 10-to-1 gap looks like 10 blocks against one. Nothing is capped or squeezed.

Democrat (D)

Republican (R)

Independent (I)

Solid: campaign money

Hatched: outside money helping that candidate

1 block = $1M ($100K where a race is marked) · a partial block is the remainder

Ratio = bigger side's campaign + outside money ÷ smaller side's. Sorted most lopsided first. Outside money counts for a candidate when it supports them or opposes their opponent, and only when it was for the general election.

Every House race

Each dot is a House race, placed by how much of the top two spenders' campaign money the bigger spender accounts for. The further right, the more lopsided. House figures are campaign money only.

Democrat (D)

Republican (R)

Independent (I)

Filled: top spender is the incumbent

Hollow: challenger or open-seat candidate

Share = top spender's campaign disbursements ÷ the top two spenders' combined. Includes 379 House races where the second-biggest spender disbursed at least $25K.

Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.