Senate · midterms 2014–2026
The Payout
Does more money buy more votes? Across 91 Senate races in the last three midterms, going from even money to twice the other side's came with about +3.5 points over the state's partisan lean (likely +1.5 to +6.0). Past that, there are too few lopsided races to tell whether more money helps at all. 2026 is plotted from polls and isn't final.
Updated
Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.
Even → 2× the money
+3.5 pts
likely +1.5 to +6.0
over the state's presidential lean (fitted trend)
2× → 4×
+0.6 pts
likely −0.8 to +1.9 · can't rule out zero
over the state's presidential lean (fitted trend)
4× → 8×
−0.9 pts
likely −2.5 to +0.4 · can't rule out zero
over the state's presidential lean (fitted trend)
All completed midterms (fitted trend)
Likely range of that trend (90%)
2014
2018
2022
2026 — polls, provisional
▸ beyond 64× (on the edge)
Campaign money or outside money?
Most Senate money now comes from outside groups. Does it pay off like a campaign's own spending? Each dot is a completed race; across, the non-Republican's share of that kind of money (outside money only where at least $1M was spent).
2014
2018
2022
Fitted trend
Likely range (90%)
Campaign money
91 races · on its own, a 2-to-1 edge came with +2.9 pts (likely +0.5 to +6.0)
Outside money
56 races · on its own, a 2-to-1 edge came with +0.0 pts (likely −3.7 to +3.5)
A 2-to-1 campaign-money edge
+2.3 pts
likely +0.8 to +3.5
holding outside money and the year fixed
A 2-to-1 outside-money edge
+1.2 pts
likely −0.3 to +2.9 · can't rule out zero
holding campaign money and the year fixed
In the 56 races with real outside spending, a campaign's own money tracks its result; outside money's effect can't be told apart from zero. Outside money pours into the closest races, which may hide what it buys, so treat this as a pattern, not proof.
2026: who's running ahead of their money
What each race's spending advantage predicted from past midterms, at this year's national mood, against today's polling average. Races usually land within about 9.2 points of the prediction; gaps bigger than that are marked ●. Polls can be off too, and a single race can beat the odds for reasons money doesn't capture: a scandal, a strong local brand, an unusual opponent.
Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.