Horse Race, 2026 midtermsHorse Race, 2026 midterms

Who's ahead, who's paying, what could flip

Senate & House · 2014–2026

Past Performances

Four midterms on one scale, in 2026 dollars. 2026 Senate races have drawn $2.5B so far, against $3B for all of 2022 — but outside groups now supply 58% of it, up from 37%. 2026 is still in progress, so its columns will grow; at the same point in 2022, Senate races had drawn $1.9B, and on past midterms' pace 2026 would finish around $3.8B–$4B.

Updated

Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.

Total money per midterm, by party

Democrats

Republicans

Independents & others

Solid: campaigns · pale: outside groups

Dashed outline: 2026 filings to date (not final)

At the same point in the race

The totals above compare 2026 so far with finished cycles. Here each past midterm is cut off at the same point in the year: campaign spending through Sept 30, outside spending through the date of 2026's newest filing. The dashed bar and bracket project 2026's final total if money keeps arriving at a past midterm's pace. It's an estimate, not a record.

Spent by this point in the year

Past cycle's final total

2026 projected (dashed; bracket = range)

Senate races by state

Each line is one state with a 2026 Senate race. Highlighted: the three biggest rises and falls against the state's previous midterm race. Hover any line for its numbers.

Rose most vs. the state's previous midterm race

Fell most

Other states with a 2026 Senate race

Dashed segment, open dot: 2026 to date (not final)

Lines join each state's midterm Senate races; a state with no race in a cycle skips it. Most seats up in 2026 were last contested in 2020 and, before that, in 2014. Only states with a 2026 race are shown.