Senate & House · 2026

Long Shots

A race is won by one vote. This map prices that vote: how many voters the trailing candidate needs, times what a vote costs in that race. The cheapest Senate steal right now: Dan Sullivan (R★) in the Alaska Senate, about 110 votes — $41.4K at the going rate.

Click any mark to see exactly where its number comes from. ★ = incumbent.

These are estimates for understanding the race, not betting lines. Please don't bet on elections.

Lower-left is cheapest: few votes needed, cheap votes. Diagonal lines mark equal prices to flip. Persuasion counts each convert twice (their vote leaves the leader and joins the trailer).

Trailing Democrat

Trailing Republican

Trailing independent

Hollow: margin estimated from partisan lean (no polls)

↑ Going rate: $ spent per expected voter (log scale)

Cheapest steals

Limits of this data

These are illustrative prices, not forecasts: votes aren't bought at average cost, the next dollar in a saturated race buys less than the last, and persuasion is much harder than mobilization (field experiments find near-zero persuasion effects in general elections).

Margins are polls or partisan estimates, both with real error; a 2-point deficit may be no deficit at all.

Candidate totals come from each campaign's most recent filed report; most cover through June 30 or September 30, so recent fundraising is not yet visible.

Outside spending in House special elections is left out of race totals (listed under Exclusions). A candidate who also ran in a 2025–26 House special still has that campaign's own spending in their FEC totals, which cover the whole two-year cycle and can't be split.

Polling data: VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0. Campaign finance: Federal Election Commission.